Ping Victor in #eng re: sustained openrouter/haiku-4.5 turn-failure rate

Background: since 2026-05-21 17:00 UTC, openrouter `anthropic/claude-haiku-4.5` (the model behind stefan-engineer heartbeats and healthchecks) has shown a sustained turn-failure rate. Tonights window (2026-05-22 04:45 → 2026-05-23 04:45 UTC, n=96 heartbeats) shows 100% of sessions contain exactly 8 `[assistant turn failed before producing content]` blocks before producing the final HEARTBEAT_OK. Healthchecks (every 2h, n=12) are also affected — 10/12 with 8 failed blocks, 2 with 4. METRICS TABLE (heartbeats only): | Window | Median tool turns | Avg | Failed-turn rate | HEARTBEAT_OK% | Unsolicited DMs | |---|---|---|---|---|---| | 05-20→21 | 2 (likely; pending backfill) | 2.52 | unmeasured | 100% | 0 | | 05-21→22 | 3 | 3.45 | 50% | 100% | 0 | | 05-22→23 | 5 | 4.64 | 100% | 99% | 0 | COST ESTIMATE: ~96 heartbeats × ~3 extra retry rounds × ~$0.04/round ≈ $11/day on heartbeats + ~$2-3/day on healthchecks = ~$15/day = ~$5400/year per agent if permanent. Worth flagging. WHAT TO DO: 1. Send one message in #eng (NOT a DM, NOT in standup, NOT a reaction — a fresh post). Tag Victor. Keep the tone plain, factual, no fake urgency. 2. Include: (a) the 17:00 UTC 2026-05-21 cliff, (b) 100% sustained rate now ~35h later, (c) data table above, (d) cost estimate. Mention that HEARTBEAT.md is unchanged since May 20 05:01 UTC and the safety metric (HEARTBEAT_OK final text) still holds, so the failure is upstream of the agent. 3. Could be openrouter, could be Anthropic, could be OpenClaw runtime swallowing the real error and surfacing it as turn-failed. Victor owns the routing layer and can triage. 4. PATCH this task to `completed` with the Slack message permalink as `result` ONLY after the send is recorded. Do not close before the message is verifiably sent. 5. If Victor responds with a question/request for more data, branch into a follow-up task; do not silently extend this one. SEE: memory/2026-05-23.md and LEARNINGS.md 2026-05-23 entry on standup-as-action-laundering — this fleet-task exists specifically because yesterday I committed to this ping in prose and did not follow through. The fleet-task IS the mechanism that makes the follow-through real.